The US-Saudi Defense Pact: Impact on Middle East Dynamics

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In a bid to strengthen diplomatic ties with Israel, Saudi Arabia is actively pursuing a defense pact with the United States. This move has significant implications for the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape. In this article, we delve into the details of this development, its potential outcomes, and the implications for regional dynamics.

Saudi Arabia’s Diplomatic Ambitions

Three reliable sources have confirmed that Saudi Arabia is committed to securing a military agreement with the United States. This agreement would entail a US commitment to defend the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Notably, this commitment comes in exchange for the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and Israel.

The Quest for Security

Saudi Arabia’s determination to proceed with this agreement is resolute, even if Israel does not make substantial concessions to the Palestinians in their pursuit of statehood. However, it is crucial to understand that the defense pact may not provide the same level of robust guarantees seen in NATO agreements, which was initially Saudi Arabia’s preference.

Comparing Defense Models

A credible US source suggests that this pact could resemble treaties that Washington has with various Asian states. Alternatively, if gaining approval from the US Congress proves challenging, it might take a form similar to the US agreement with Bahrain. The latter scenario would not require congressional backing.

The Major Non-NATO Ally Status

To sweeten the deal, Washington is considering designating Saudi Arabia as a Major Non-NATO Ally—a status already granted to Israel. This designation would further solidify the strategic partnership between the two nations.

Protecting Against Threats

Saudi Arabia places significant importance on US protection, especially in cases of potential threats or attacks. One prominent example is the missile strikes on Saudi oil facilities in 2019, which both Riyadh and Washington attribute to Iran, their regional rival. It’s worth noting that Iran vehemently denies any involvement in these attacks.

Reshaping the Middle East

A defense agreement of this nature, coupled with the normalization of relations with Israel, could potentially reshape the Middle East. This historic move would bring together two nations that have been historical adversaries and align Riyadh more closely with Washington, countering China’s growing influence in the region.

A Diplomatic Victory for Biden

For President Joe Biden, such an agreement would represent a significant diplomatic achievement, especially in the lead-up to the 2024 US presidential election.

Palestinian Aspirations

While this development may lead to certain Israeli concessions benefiting the Palestinians, it is unlikely to fully meet their aspirations for statehood. Historically, Arab-Israeli agreements have often prioritized diplomatic relations over Palestinian statehood, relegating the latter to a secondary position.